Simple enough, really. For an electric oven, look at the elements (easier with the light off - also easier if your oven has a glass window in the door - you don't specify - but not essential.)
If they glow orange and then get dark, they are cycling on and off. If the "off time" is more than a minute or so, it's likely where it thinks it's set. My current one does not just slam the elements full on until it hits temperature, so I'd not say turning off at all is a good indicator.
That may have a wide relationship to what the actual temperature is, so a thermometer is still a good idea, but you can live without one if you look at the food and it seems to be too brown/black or not browned enough, allowing you to infer the temperature is higher or lower than it says, and change the setting next time.
In many cases you can also hear the elements click on and off. Useful if there's no window.
If a gas oven, look at the burner flames. You can usually hear those, as well. Most will only go back to "large pilot" once they hit temperature, so the main flame dropping is a good sign you are at temperature.
Ye Olde Recipes (1980's and before) generally just said something like "preheat for 15-20 minutes," so that's another simple method, as is not even preheating (so, you bake a little longer, but the oven is on for less total time) for the many things that don't really need it, reserving preheat for the few that do.